Risk Simulation and Queuing

taught by Cliff Ragsdale

This course covers modeling technique making decisions in the presence of risk or uncertainty.  Specific topics include risk analysis using Monte Carlo simulation for risk simulation, queuing theory for problems involving waiting lines, and decision trees for analyzing problems with multiple discrete decision alternatives.

Business analysts with responsibility for specifying, creating, deploying or interpreting quantitative decision models.  Users of risk analysis or queuing software who need to attain a more solid grounding in the subject.

Risk Simulation and Queuing

taught by Cliff Ragsdale

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Courses may fill up at any time and registrations are processed in the order in which they are received. Your registration will be confirmed for the first available course date, unless you specify otherwise. Multiple course registrations may be entitled to tuition discounts; read more.

Risk Simulation and Queuing

taught by Cliff Ragsdale

This course covers three important modeling techniques.  Students will learn how to construct and implement simulation models to model (1) the uncertainty in decision input variables (e.g. price, demand, etc.), so that the overall estimate of interest from a model can be supplemented by a risk interval of possible other outcomes (risk simulation), and (2) the variability in arrivals over time (customers, cars at a toll plaza, data packets, etc.) and ensuing queues (queuing theory). Students will also learn how to employ decision trees to incorporate information derived from models to actually make optimal decisions.  Students will use spreadsheet-based software to specify and implement models.

SESSION 1: Risk Analysis

• Simulation
• Interpreting output
• Implementing & optimizing the model

SESSION 2: Advanced Simulation

• Poisson distribution, arrival rate
• Service rate
• Operating characteristics

SESSION 3: Queuing

• Mastering complexity
• Payoff matrix
• Decision rules
• Expected monetary value
• Expected regret
• Expected value of information
• Decision trees

SESSION 4: Multistage Decision Problems

• Risk profile
• Sensitivity analysis
• Tornado charts
• Using sample information
• Conditional probabilities
• Utility functions

HOMEWORK:

Homework in this course consists of short answer questions to test concepts and guided data analysis problems using software.

This course takes place over the internet at the Institute for 4 weeks. During each course week, you participate at times of your own choosing - there are no set times when you must be online. Course participants will be given access to a private discussion board. In class discussions led by the instructor, you can post questions, seek clarification, and interact with your fellow students and the instructor.

The course typically requires 15 hours per week. At the beginning of each week, you receive the relevant material, in addition to answers to exercises from the previous session. During the week, you are expected to go over the course materials, work through exercises, and submit answers. Discussion among participants is encouraged. The instructor will provide answers and comments, and at the end of the week, you will receive individual feedback on your homework answers.

1. You may be interested only in learning the material presented, and not be concerned with grades or a record of completion.
2. You may be enrolled in PASS (Programs in Analytics and Statistical Studies) that requires demonstration of proficiency in the subject, in which case your work will be assessed for a grade.
3. You may require a "Record of Course Completion," along with professional development credit in the form of Continuing Education Units (CEU's).  For those successfully completing the course, 5.0 CEU's and a record of course completion will be issued by The Institute, upon request.

Spreadsheet Modeling & Decision Analysis, Sixth edition by Cliff Ragsdale, which can be ordered from the publisher here.  Please be aware that if you order the ebook or rent it, you will also need to purchase the companion resources which will give you the access to the software.  This text is also used in Introduction to Optimization and Advanced Optimization.

Note:  It is important to get the sixth edition of the text; earlier editions do not contain correct assignments, nor do they provide the needed access to the software.

The course uses Risk Solver Platform for Education software by Frontline systems.  Risk Solver Platform for Education is a new add-in for Excel that performs risk analysis, simulation, optimization, decision trees and other analytical methods.  With the purchase or rental of the book, you will have a course code that will enable you to download and install the software for 140 days.

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