Forecasting - Advanced

Brief Description:

This course covers multiple linear regression, autoregressive modesls (ARMA and ARIMA), seasonal adjustment, measures of forecast accuracy, and exponential smoothing. It goes into greater detail and depth than "Forecasting."

Instructor(s):
Level: intermediate

Who Should Take This Course:

This course is oriented toward practitioners and makes extensive use of real data based cases. Participants should be familiar with basic statistical concepts and, ideally, should have some forecasting experience. Business analysts in industry, government, service organizations and others who need to make future predictions from historical data should benefit from this course.

Dates:
To be scheduled.
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Registration:
Please read the syllabus tab, noting the prerequisites, text and software requirements.

Register Online -$499
Register Online -$399 (you must be affiliated with a college, university or high school)

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Courses may fill up at any time and registrations are processed in the order in which they are received. Your registration will be confirmed for the first available course date, unless you specify otherwise. Multiple course registrations may be entitled to tuition discounts; read more.

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Forecasting - Advanced

Aim of Course:

Participants will learn to analyze time series data and develop forecasts of future values using readily available forecasting techniques. This course goes into more detail and depth than "Forecasting" and covers averaging methods, including exponential smoothing, regression models for time series and ARIMA (Box-Jenkins) models. The forecasting techniques discussed in this course can be implemented using most statistical software packages.

This course is a core requirement or elective in the following Program(s) in Analytics and Statistical Studies (PASS):

• Business Analytics

Prerequisite(s):
Students should also have some familiarity with basic time series forecasting, such as that covered in Forecasting.
Course Program:

SESSION 1: Forecasts based on averages

• Autocorrelation
• Achieving stationarity
• Measures of forecast efficacy
• Averages with equal weights
• Smoothing procedures with declining weighs

SESSION 2: Forecasting with multiple regression models

• Regression model
• Assumptions and inference
• Residual analysis
• Times series regression
• Problems caused by autocorrelation
• Generalized differencing
• Transformations
• Trend curves and dummy variables

SESSION 3: Forecasting with non-seasonal ARIMA models

• Stationary and non-stationary processes
• Autoregressive models
• Moving average models
• Mixed autoregressive-moving average models

SESSION 4: Forecasting with seasonal ARIMA models

• Model identification
• Models for seasonal data
• Forecasts, limits, caveats
• The forecasting process

Organization of the Course:

This course takes place over the internet at the Institute for 4 weeks. During each course week, you participate at times of your own choosing - there are no set times when you must be online. Course participants will be given access to a private discussion board. In class discussions led by the instructor, you can post questions, seek clarification, and interact with your fellow students and the instructor.

The course typically requires 15 hours per week. At the beginning of each week, you receive the relevant material, in addition to answers to exercises from the previous session. During the week, you are expected to go over the course materials, work through exercises, and submit answers. Discussion among participants is encouraged. The instructor will provide answers and comments, and at the end of the week, you will receive individual feedback on your homework answers.

Credit:
Students come to the Institute for a variety of reasons. As you begin the course, you will be asked to specify your category:

1. You may be interested only in learning the material presented, and not be concerned with grades or a record of completion.
2. You may be enrolled in PASS (Programs in Analytics and Statistical Studies) that requires demonstration of proficiency in the subject, in which case your work will be assessed for a grade.
3. You may require a "Record of Course Completion," along with professional development credit in the form of Continuing Education Units (CEU's).  For those successfully completing the course, 5.0 CEU's and a record of course completion will be issued by The Institute, upon request.

Course Text:

The required text for this course is Hanke and Wichern's 9th Edition of Business Forecasting and Student CD Package,which can be ordered directly from the publisher here. Addison Wesley/Pearson offers a 15% discount on this book (and all other statistics titles): enter the code STATSMPS in the Promotion Code field when prompted during checkout and click the Apply Discount button. The 15% off discount will work for customers coming from anywhere in the world, except Canada. The free shipping only applies to orders shipping within the US.

 

Special note for Canadian customers: If you are located in Canada, you will need to make your order on the myPearsonStore.ca site, which does not have the ability to offer discount codes. Try calling your regional Pearson representative. The US website will not let you choose "Canada" as a ship-to country.

PLEASE ORDER YOUR COPY IN TIME FOR THE COURSE STARTING DATE.

Note: This text is also used in "Forecasting Time Series 1."

Software:

Participants will benefit from having access to software that can do time series analysis. Examples and illustrations will be provided for Minitab, and the homework is designed so that it can all be done in Minitab. (Most standard statistical software will be able to handle the majority of the procedures covered in this course.) Our teaching assistants can offer help with Minitab and XLMiner. For information about software that is available at no charge, or nominal charge, for statistics.com courses click here.

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Forecasting - Advanced

Instructor(s):
Dates:
To be scheduled.
Course Fee: $499
Academic Rate: $399

Before registering, please read the syllabus tab, noting the prerequisites, text and software requirements. When you click the register button, you will be taken to our secure transaction page.

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