Introduction to Quantitative Risk Analysis

Dr. Huybert Groenendaal

Aim of Course:

This course will cover the most important principles, techniques and tools in Quantitative Risk Analysis. The focus of the course is on how to conduct accurate and effective risk analyses, including framing a risk analysis problem, best practices of risk modeling, selecting the appropriate distribution, using data and expert opinion, and presenting risk analysis results. In addition, the course will provide cover an introduction to probability and statistics theory and various stochastic processes, which is critically important to provide course participants with a solid understanding of quantitative risk analysis.

The course will also get the participants comfortable with risk analysis modeling environments (in this case Crystal Ball with Excel, but the lessons and techniques apply equally well to other modeling environments). The course will finally also cover common mistakes and how to prevent making them.

Who Should Take This Course:

Anyone in business, government and science with an interest in quantitative risk analysis such as professionals needing to perform quantitative risk analysis in areas not limited to for example finance, business development, economics, operations, engineering, six sigma, project risk analysis, marketing, epidemiology and microbiology.

For those enrolled in Professional Advancement Programs, this is a required or elective course in the following Programs:

• Data Mining - elective
• Statistics in Business & Marketing - elective

Course Program:

The course is structured as follows

The Instructor:

is Dr. Huybert Groenendaal, Partner at Vose Consulting. For over two decades, Vose Consulting has provided clients worldwide with the highest quality risk analysis techniques and methods. Huybert helps and consults clients in industry and government on projects that include financial investment evaluations, project risk analysis, forecasting, operations, transportation logistics, epidemiology and more. A list of past experience and clients of Vose Consulting can be found here. Dr. Groenendaal also organizes and teaches "Quantitative Risk Analysis", "Project Risk Analysis", and "Corporate Risk Analysis" courses and workshops worldwide and has taught on risk analysis in the executive MBA program of the University of Texas at Dallas. Dr. Groenendaal has an MBA in Finance from the Wharton School of Business, a Masters in Animal Science and a PhD in Risk Analysis from Wageningen University in The Netherlands.

Organization of the Course:

The course takes place over the internet, at statistics.com. During each course week, you participate at times of your own choosing - there are no set times when you must be online. Course participants will be given access to a private discussion board. In class discussions led by the instructor, you can post questions, seek clarification, and interact with your fellow students and the instructor. The course is scheduled to take place over 4 weeks, and typically requires 10-15 hours per week. At the beginning of each week, you receive the relevant material, in addition to answers to exercises from the previous session. During the week, you are expected to go over the course materials and work through exercises. Discussion among participants is encouraged. The instructor will provide answers and comments.

Certificates and Grades:

You may be interested only in learning the material presented, and not be concerned with grades or certificates. Or you may be enrolled in a statistics.com Professional Advancement Program that requires demonstration of proficiency in the subject, in which case your work will be assessed for purposes of issuing a grade. Or you may require only a "Certificate of Course Completion," along with professional development credit in the form of Continuing Education Units (CEU's). As you begin the class, you will be asked to specify your category.

Credit:

This course offers continuing education units (CEU's). For those successfully completing the course (generally this means marks of 50% or better on the homework), 5.0 CEU's and a certificate will be issued by statistics.com, upon request.

Dates:

Apr. 11 - May. 9, 2008
Oct. 3 - Oct. 31, 2008
Apr. 10 - May. 8, 2009
Click here to be notified of future course offerings.

Participants gain access to the online materials on the first day of the course, and typically spend about 10-15 hours per week (at their convenience). You retain full access to course materials, including discussion board, for two weeks after the course closing date.

Level:

novice/intermediate

Prerequisite:

All models are developed using Excel and Crystal Ball. It is therefore essential that all participants are reasonably proficient in Excel. Furthermore, some basic understanding of probability is required, akin to the "Basic Concepts" course.

Course Text:

Course Text: Course participants will be provided with weekly digital reading material, as well as the required course text. This text is actually a risk analysis training and reference software package with videos, example models, quizzes and more. To obtain your copy please click here. If you have any installation problems, email info {at} vosesoftware.com. Note that this training package is separate from the (free) course software (see note about Crystal Ball below).

Software:

Course illustrations and homework assignments will use Crystal Ball (r), the risk analysis and simulation Excel add-in made by Decisioneering (www.decisioneering.com). A limited time free demo license of Crystal Ball will be provided to all course participants at the start of the course.

Registration:

Register Online - $449
Register Online (academic) - $349 (you must be affiliated with a college, university or high school)

Add $50 service fee if you require a prior invoice, or if you need to submit a purchase order or voucher, pay by wire transfer or EFT, or refund and reprocess a prior payment. Please use this printed registration form, for these and other special orders.

Note: Courses may fill up at any time and registrations are processed in the order in which they are received. Your registration will be confirmed for the first available course date, unless you specify otherwise.