Algorithms

We have an extensive statistical glossary and have been sending out a "word of the week" newsfeed for a number of years.  Take a look at the results

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Gittens Index

Consider the multi-arm bandit problem where each arm has an unknown probability of paying either 0 or 1, and a specified payoff discount factor of x (i.e. for two successive payoffs, the second is valued at x% of the first, where x < 100%).  The Gittens index is [...]

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Autoregressive

Autoregressive refers to time series forecasting models (AR models) in which the independent variables (predictors) are prior values of the time series itself.

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Matching Algorithms

Some applications of machine learning and artificial intelligence are recognizably impressive - predicting future hospital readmission of discharged patients, for example, or diagnosing retinopathy. Others - self-driving cars, for example - seem almost magical. The matching problem, though, is one where your first reaction might…

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Industry Spotlight: Agriculture

Weeds are big business - the global herbicide market is over $35 billion annually.  Weeds are also big government (think “invasive species”). California’s listing of weeds is called Encycloweedia, and the state publishes a quarterly newsletter called Noxious Times. Colorado publishes a similar periodical, Invader.…

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Job Spotlight: Risk Analyst

Many jobs are centered around risk management.  If you’re looking through job postings, of course, you’ll see lots of jobs whose purpose is to make sure that nothing bad happens - the equivalent of locking the doors and closing the windows.  More interesting from a…

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Job Spotlight: Data Scientist

Data science is one of a host of similar terms.  “Artificial intelligence” has been around since the 1960’s and “data mining” for at least a couple of decades.  “Machine learning” came out of the computer science community, and “analytics,” “data analytics,” and “predictive analytics” came…

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"When I started teaching mandatory biostatistics classes in 1970 at UNC, I realized early on that a lot of kids didn't want to take a course they perceived as boring, so I kept things relaxed and fun."
Instructor Spotlight: David Kleinbaum

Historical Spotlight: Ronald A. Fisher

In 1919, Ronald A. Fisher was appointed as chief statistician at the agricultural research station in Rothamsted, a post created for him. His work there resulted, in 1925, in the publication of his classic Statistical Methods for Research Workers. An important message of his book…

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Read more about the article Instructor Spotlight: Prof. David Unwin
Prof. David Unwin

Instructor Spotlight: Prof. David Unwin

Prof. David Unwin has guided, developed and taught the spatial analysis curriculum at Statistics.com since 2005. David lives in central England, about an hour north of the storied Rothamsted agricultural research center. Until his retirement in 2002, he was Professor of Geography at Birkbeck College,…

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Problem of the Week: Missing Data

Question: You have a supervised learning task with 30 predictors, in which 5% of the observations are missing.  The missing data are randomly distributed across variables and records. If your strategy for coping with missing data is to drop records with missing data, what proportion…

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Historical Spotlight: Alan Turing

80 years ago, in 1939, Alan Turing began work on the code-breaking system that would eventually prove key in helping Britain survive the German submarine threat in the Atlantic. Last month, the Turing Award in computer science prize (sometimes referred to as the "Nobel Prize…

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Darwin’s Legacy in Statistics

Charles Darwin, the most famous grandson of the Enlightenment thinker Erasmus Darwin, published his ground-breaking theory of evolution, “The Origin of Species,”160 years ago. Another grandson of Erasmus, Francis Galton, became one of the founding fathers of statistics (correlation, the “wisdom of the crowd,” regression…

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Industry Spotlight: Customer Segmentation

Are you "young and rustic?" Or perhaps a "toolbelt traditionalist?" These are nicknames given to customer segments identified by market research firm Claritas, with its statistical clustering tool. Long before the advent of individualized product recommendations, business sought to segment customers into distinct groups on…

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Industry Spotlight: CROs

CRO's, or contract research organizations, are a $40 billion industry, growing at close to 12% per year. They provide contract services to the pharmaceutical industry, including statistical design and analysis, laboratory services, administration of clinical trials, and monitoring of drugs once they are on the…

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Rectangular data

Rectangular data are the staple of statistical and machine learning models.  Rectangular data are multivariate cross-sectional data (i.e. not time-series or repeated measure) in which each column is a variable (feature), and each row is a case or record.

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Industry Spotlight: Consulting

When a new technology arrives, consulting companies can quickly add staff and expertise to build institutional capacity centered around the technology in ways companies focused on delivering their own products and services cannot. Large consulting companies like Booz Allen and McKinsey, as well as smaller…

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Selection Bias

Selection bias is a sampling or data collection process that yields a biased, or unrepresentative, sample.  It can occur in numerous situations, here are just a few:

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Space Shuttle Explosion

In 1986, the U.S. space shuttle Challenger exploded several minutes after launch. A later investigation found that the cause of the disaster was O-ring failure, due to cold temperatures. The temperature at launch was 39 degrees, colder than any prior launch. The cold caused the…

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Historical Spotlight – ISOQOL

25 years ago the International Society of Quality of Life Research was founded with a mission to advance the science of quality of life and related patient-centered outcomes in health research, care and policy. While focusing on quality of life (QOL) in healthcare may seem…

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Likert Scale

A "likert scale" is used in self-report rating surveys to allow users to express an opinion or assessment of something on a gradient scale.  For example, a response could range from "agree strongly" through "agree somewhat" and "disagree somewhat" on to "disagree strongly."  Two key decisions the survey designer faces are

  • How many gradients to allow, and

  • Whether to include a neutral midpoint

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Job Spotlight: Digital Marketer

A digital marketer handles a variety of tasks in online marketing - managing online advertising and search engine optimization (SEO), implementing tracking systems (e.g. to identify how a person came to a retailer), web development, preparing creatives, implementing tests, and, of course, analytics. There are…

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Dummy Variable

A dummy variable is a binary (0/1) variable created to indicate whether a case belongs to a particular category.  Typically a dummy variable will be derived from a multi-category variable. For example, an insurance policy might be residential, commercial or automotive, and there would be three dummy variables created:

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Things are Getting Better

In the visualization below, which line do you think represents the UN's forecast for the number of children in the world in the year 2100? Hans Rosling, in his book Factfulness, presents this chart and notes that in a sample of Norwegian teachers, only 9%…

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Artificial Lawyers

Can statistical and machine learning methods replace lawyers? A host of entrepreneurs think so, and do the folks who run www.artificiallawyer.com. Text mining and predictive model products are available now to predict case staffing requirements and perform automated document discovery, and natural language algorithms conduct…

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Work and Heat

If you are working on New Year's Eve or New Year's Day, odds are it is from home, where you can (usually) control the temperature in the home. Which, from the standpoint of productivity, is a good thing. According to a study from Cornell, raising…

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Curbstoning

Curbstoning, to an established auto dealer, is the practice of unlicensed car dealers selling cars from streetside, where the cars may be parked along the curb.  With a pretense of being an individual selling a car on his or her own, and with no fixed…

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Snowball Sampling

Snowball sampling is a form of sampling in which the selection of new sample subjects is suggested by prior subjects.  From a statistical perspective, the method is prone to high variance and bias, compared to random sampling. The characteristics of the initial subject may propagate through the sample to some degree, and a sample derived by starting with subject 1 may differ from that produced by by starting with subject 2, even if the resulting sample in both cases contains both subject 1 and subject 2.  However, …

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Conditional Probability Word of the Week

QUESTION:  The rate of residential insurance fraud is 10% (one out of ten claims is fraudulent).  A consultant has proposed a machine learning system to review claims and classify them as fraud or no-fraud.  The system is 90% effective in detecting the fraudulent claims, but only 80% effective in correctly classifying the non-fraud claims (it mistakenly labels one in five as "fraud").  If the system classifies a claim as fraudulent, what is the probability that it really is fraudulent?

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Book Review: Active-Epi

ActivEpi Web, by David Kleinbaum, is the text used in two Statistics.com courses (Epidemiology Statistics and Designing Valid Studies), but it is really a rich multimedia web-based presentation of epidemiological statistics, serving the role of a unique textbook format for an introductory course in the…

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Churn

Churn is a term used in marketing to refer to the departure, over time, of customers.  Subscribers to a service may remain for a long time (the ideal customer), or they may leave for a variety of reasons (switching to a competitor, dissatisfaction, credit card expires, customer moves, etc.).  A customer who leaves, for whatever reason, "churns."

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ROC Curve

The Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) curve is a measure of how well a statistical or machine learning model (or a medical diagnostic procedure) can distinguish between two classes, say 1’s and 0’s.  For example, fraudulent insurance claims (1’s) and non-fraudulent ones (0’s). It plots two quantities:

 

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Prospective vs. Retrospective

A prospective study is one that identifies a scientific (usually medical) problem to be studied, specifies a study design protocol (e.g. what you’re measuring, who you’re measuring, how many subjects, etc.), and then gathers data in the future in accordance with the design. The definition…

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Historical Spotlight: Risk Simulation – Since 1946

Simulation - a Venerable History One of the most consequential and valuable analytical tools in business is simulation, which helps us make decisions in the face of uncertainty, such as these: An airline knows on average, what proportion of ticketed passengers show up for a…

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BOOTSTRAP

I used the term in my message about bagging and several people asked for a review of the bootstrap. Put simply, to bootstrap a dataset is to draw a resample from the data, randomly and with replacement.

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Early Data Scientists

Casting back long before the advent of Deep Learning for the "founding fathers" of data science, at first glance you would rule out antecedents who long predate the computer and data revolutions of the last quarter century. But some consider John Tukey (below), the Princeton statistician…

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Python for Analytics

Python started out as a general purpose language when it was created in 1991 by Guido van Rossum. It was embraced early on by Google founders Sergei Brin and Larry Page ("Python where we can, C++ where we must" was reputedly their mantra). In 2006,…

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