Introduction to Quantitative Risk Analysis

Dr. Huybert Groenendaal and Mr. Greg Nolder

Aim of Course:

This course will cover the most important principles, techniques and tools in Quantitative Risk Analysis. The focus of the course is on how to conduct accurate and effective risk analyses, including framing a risk analysis problem, best practices of risk modeling, selecting the appropriate probability distribution, using data and expert opinion, and presenting risk analysis results. In addition, the course will cover an introduction to probability and statistics theory and various stochastic processes, which is critically important to a solid understanding of quantitative risk analysis.

The course will also familiarize participants with risk analysis modeling environments (in this case ModelRisk with Excel, but the lessons and techniques apply equally well to other modeling environments). The course will also cover common mistakes made when doing quantitative risk analysis and how to avoid them.

Who Should Take This Course:

Anyone in business, government and science with an interest in quantitative risk analysis such as professionals needing to perform quantitative risk analysis in areas indcluding, but not limited to, finance, business development, economics, operations, engineering, six sigma, project risk analysis, marketing, epidemiology and microbiology.

For those enrolled in a Program of Advanced Statistical Studies, this is a required or elective course in the following Programs:

• Statistics in Business & Marketing - elective
• Data Mining - elective

Course Program:

The course is structured as follows:

The Instructor:

Dr. Huybert Groenendaal is a Partner at Vose Consulting, which specializes in risk analysis techniques and methods for clients around the world. Dr. Groenendaal helps and consults clients in industry and government on projects that include financial investment evaluations, project risk analysis, forecasting, operations, transportation logistics, epidemiology and more. Dr. Groenendaal also organizes and teaches "Quantitative Risk Analysis", "Project Risk Analysis", and "Corporate Risk Analysis" courses and workshops worldwide and has taught on risk analysis in the executive MBA program of the University of Texas at Dallas.

Mr. Greg Nolder MSc, is a Risk Analysis Consultant at Vose Consulting. Mr. Nolder is an experienced consultant having worked numerous clients from diverse industries such as computer hardware, pharmaceuticals, banking, finance, construction, mining, oil & gas, chemicals, consumer packaged goods, transportation and engineering. Of particular interest are systems involving stochastic optimization, general QRA and applying analytics to amateur and professional sports.

Organization of the Course:

The course takes place over the internet, at statistics.com. During each course week, you participate at times of your own choosing - there are no set times when you must be online. Course participants will be given access to a private discussion board. In class discussions led by the instructor, you can post questions, seek clarification, and interact with your fellow students and the instructor. The course is scheduled to take place over 4 weeks, and typically requires 15 hours per week. At the beginning of each week, you receive the relevant material, in addition to answers to exercises from the previous session. During the week, you are expected to go over the course materials and work through exercises. Discussion among participants is encouraged. The instructor will provide answers and comments.

Certificates and Grades:

You may be interested only in learning the material presented, and not be concerned with grades or certificates. Or you may be enrolled in a statistics.com Program in Advanced Statistical Studies that requires demonstration of proficiency in the subject, in which case your work will be assessed for purposes of issuing a grade. Or you may require only a "Certificate of Course Completion," along with professional development credit in the form of Continuing Education Units (CEU's). As you begin the class, you will be asked to specify your category.

Credit:

This course offers continuing education units (CEU's). For those successfully completing the course (generally this means marks of 50% or better on the homework), 5.0 CEU's and a certificate will be issued by statistics.com, upon request.

Dates:

Oct. 1 - Oct. 29, 2010
Click here to be notified of future course offerings.

Participants gain access to the online materials on the first day of the course, and typically spend about 15 hours per week (at their convenience). You retain full access to course materials, including discussion board, for two weeks after the course closing date.

Level:

intermediate

Prerequisite:

The equivalent of Introduction to Statistics for Beginners and Introduction to Statistics 1: Inference for a Single Variable. All models are developed using Excel and ModelRisk. It is therefore essential that all participants be proficient in Excel, including the use of Excel functions.

Course Text:

Course participants will be provided with weekly digital reading material, as well as the required course text. This text is available online at click here. If you have any problems viewing the text email info {at} vosesoftware.com. Note that this training package/online book is separate from the one (free) course software packages (see note about ModelRisk below). There is also an optional recommended text, for those needing to retain a reference book after the course: Risk Analysis: A Quantitiative Guide by David Vose, from Wiley. Wiley typically offers statistics.com customers up to 15% discount on this book (and all other statistics titles): enter the code aff15 in the Promotion Code field when prompted during checkout and click the Apply Discount button. (If you are located in Asia, the web procedure for your location may not accept this discount -- try calling your regional Wiley representative.)

Software:

Course illustrations and homework assignments will use ModelRisk, risk analysis and simulation Excel add-in from Vose Software. Download instructions and a limited time free demo license of ModelRisk will be provided to all course participants at the start of the course.

Registration:

Register Online - $499
Register Online (academic) - $399 (you must be affiliated with a college, university or high school)

Add $50 service fee if you require a prior invoice, or if you need to submit a purchase order or voucher, pay by wire transfer or EFT, or refund and reprocess a prior payment. Please use this printed registration form, for these and other special orders.

Note: Courses may fill up at any time and registrations are processed in the order in which they are received. Your registration will be confirmed for the first available course date, unless you specify otherwise.

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