Skip to content

Week #14 – Naive forecast

A naive forecast or prediction is one that is extremely simple and does not rely on a statistical model (or can be expressed as a very basic form of a model).  For example, in predicting a continuous value, you might simply use the average of a sample.  In assigning a class, you might simply assign the majority class to all records.  In predicting the next value in a time series, you might simply use the most recent value.