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Home Blog Week #14 – Naive forecast

Week #14 – Naive forecast

A naive forecast or prediction is one that is extremely simple and does not rely on a statistical model (or can be expressed as a very basic form of a model).

A naive forecast or prediction is one that is extremely simple and does not rely on a statistical model (or can be expressed as a very basic form of a model).  For example, in predicting a continuous value, you might simply use the average of a sample.  In assigning a class, you might simply assign the majority class to all records.  In predicting the next value in a time series, you might simply use the most recent value.

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