Thirty years ago, GE became the brightest star in the firmament of statistical ideas in business when it adopted Six Sigma methods of quality improvement. Those methods had been introduced by Motorola, but Jack Welch’s embrace of the same methods at GE, a diverse manufacturing powerhouse, helped bring stardom to industrial statisticians. Last week, GE’sContinue reading “GE Regresses to the Mean”
Monthly Archives: October 2018
Examples of Bad Forecasting
In a couple of days, theWall Street Journalwill come out with its November survey of economists’ forecasts. It’s a particularly sensitive time, with elections in a few days and President Trump attacking the Federal Reserve for for raising interest rates. It’s a good time to recall major forecasting gaffes of the past. In 1987, best-sellingContinue reading “Examples of Bad Forecasting”
Historical Spotlight: Risk Simulation – Since 1946
Simulation – a Venerable History One of the most consequential and valuable analytical tools in business is simulation, which helps us make decisions in the face of uncertainty, such as these: An airline knows on average, what proportion of ticketed passengers show up for a flight, but the number for any given flight is uncertain. Continue reading “Historical Spotlight: Risk Simulation – Since 1946”