Gambler’s Fallacy I – forgetting that the “coin has no memory” Gamblers often believe that after a long streak of one outcome, the probability of a different outcome has increased. Sports commentators often say that a batter in a slump is “due” for a hit. Psychologically, they think that an outcome opposite to the streakContinue reading “Statistical Thinking”
Daily Archives: October 14, 2019
Latin hypercube
In Monte Carlo sampling for simulation problems, random values are generated from a probability distribution deemed appropriate for a given scenario (uniform, poisson, exponential, etc.). In simple random sampling, each potential random value within the probability distribution has an equal value of being selected. Just due to the vagaries of random chance, clusters of similarContinue reading “Latin hypercube”
Oct 14: Statistics in Practice
This week we look at several ways to fool yourself, statistically – variants of the “Gambler’s Fallacy.” Gambling is all about accurately assessing risk, so, naturally, our featured course is: Nov 15 – Dec 13: Risk Simulation and Queuing See you in class! – Peter Bruce, Chief Academic Officer, Author, Instructor, and Founder The Institute forContinue reading “Oct 14: Statistics in Practice”