Skip to content

Explore Courses | Elder Research | Contact | LMS Login

Statistics.com
  • Curriculum
    • Curriculum
    • About Us
    • Testimonials
    • Management Team
    • Faculty Search
    • Teach With Us
    • Credit & Credentialing
  • Courses
    • Explore Courses
    • Course Calendar
    • About Our Courses
    • Course Tour
    • Test Yourself!
  • Mastery Series
    • Mastery Series Program
    • Bayesian Statistics
    • Business Analytics
    • Healthcare Analytics
    • Marketing Analytics
    • Operations Research
    • Predictive Analytics
    • Python for Analytics
    • R Programming
    • Rasch & IRT
    • Spatial Statistics
    • Statistical Modeling
    • Survey Statistics
    • Text Mining and Analytics
  • Certificates
    • Certificate Program
    • Analytics for Data Science
    • Biostatistics
    • Programming for Data Science – R (Novice)
    • Programming for Data Science – R (Experienced)
    • Programming for Data Science – Python (Novice)
    • Programming for Data Science – Python (Experienced)
    • Social Science
  • Degrees
    • Degree Programs
    • Computational Data Analytics Certificate of Graduate Study from Rowan University
    • Health Data Management Certificate of Graduate Study from Rowan University
    • Data Science Analytics Master’s Degree from Thomas Edison State University (TESU)
    • Data Science Analytics Bachelor’s Degree – TESU
    • Mathematics with Predictive Modeling Emphasis BS from Bellevue University
  • Enterprise
    • Organizations
    • Higher Education
  • Resources
    • Blog
    • FAQs & Knowledge Base
    • Glossary
    • Site Map
    • Statistical Symbols
    • Weekly Brief Newsletter Signup
    • Word of the Week
Menu Close
  • Curriculum
    • Curriculum
    • About Us
    • Testimonials
    • Management Team
    • Faculty Search
    • Teach With Us
    • Credit & Credentialing
  • Courses
    • Explore Courses
    • Course Calendar
    • About Our Courses
    • Course Tour
    • Test Yourself!
  • Mastery Series
    • Mastery Series Program
    • Bayesian Statistics
    • Business Analytics
    • Healthcare Analytics
    • Marketing Analytics
    • Operations Research
    • Predictive Analytics
    • Python for Analytics
    • R Programming
    • Rasch & IRT
    • Spatial Statistics
    • Statistical Modeling
    • Survey Statistics
    • Text Mining and Analytics
  • Certificates
    • Certificate Program
    • Analytics for Data Science
    • Biostatistics
    • Programming for Data Science – R (Novice)
    • Programming for Data Science – R (Experienced)
    • Programming for Data Science – Python (Novice)
    • Programming for Data Science – Python (Experienced)
    • Social Science
  • Degrees
    • Degree Programs
    • Computational Data Analytics Certificate of Graduate Study from Rowan University
    • Health Data Management Certificate of Graduate Study from Rowan University
    • Data Science Analytics Master’s Degree from Thomas Edison State University (TESU)
    • Data Science Analytics Bachelor’s Degree – TESU
    • Mathematics with Predictive Modeling Emphasis BS from Bellevue University
  • Enterprise
    • Organizations
    • Higher Education
  • Resources
    • Blog
    • FAQs & Knowledge Base
    • Glossary
    • Site Map
    • Statistical Symbols
    • Weekly Brief Newsletter Signup
    • Word of the Week

Blog

Pandemic Puzzle – Redux

  • February 1, 2021
  • , 4:40 pm

Late last year, we offered this puzzle, to which no answer was provided at the time:

McKinsey recently came out with a study of how a shift to remote learning has affected math test scores of students in elementary school. The impact of school closures has been large and negative and has had the effect of exacerbating the gap between White students and students of color.  Leaving aside the racial gap, what explains the increasing drop-off as students (both White and nonwhite) get older? I don’t have the answer, but, if you think you do, send us a note.

 

We got a lot of responses, and, more than anything, they illustrate so-called Type III Error: “answering the wrong question.” (Read more here about how Type III error this can cause AI projects to fail.)

The Responses

Recall the question:  

“Leaving aside the racial gap, what explains the increasing drop-off as students get older?”  

Most respondents answered a different question, usually one of the following:

  1. What explains the difference between white and nonwhite scores? or
  2. Why do students perform worse in math as they get older?

The focus on racial differences in some answers is interesting, given that this was explicitly not the question of interest. This is obviously a topic of great interest, and a lightning rod for attention, but it is not what the puzzle was.

People who answered question #2 seemed to be answering this formulation of the problem: 

“As students get older, why do they fall increasingly short of some (unspecified) math performance standard?”  

But that was not the question either.  The plot that readers were asked to explain showed the drop-off for a given grade in this year’s scores, compared to the same grade’s average for the prior three years.

This is the question that relates directly to the effects of the pandemic. Only a third of the respondents answered it, but here are some points they made:

Parental Help Less Useful

With virtual learning, kids rely more on parents. As children progress through math, the simple concepts of first grade are readily amenable to parental help, but the greater complexity of fifth grade math eludes more parents.  As one respondent put it:

“one contributing factor is the changes in mathematics pedagogy that leave parents unable to figure out what the heck their kids are doing in math! I know parents with advanced degrees that can’t help their fourth-grade kids with math homework.”

Other Responsibilities at Home

As kids get older, they may have other responsibilities in the home that take time away from studies. These responsibilities and distractions were not there in prior years when they were in a classroom.

Parents Assume Older Kids Don’t Need Help with Virtual Learning

Parental help with virtual learning is less forthcoming for older kids, particularly if parents must also cope with younger siblings, so parental time/attention is diminished

Diminished Motivation

As kids get older, the natural urge to learn diminishes. (ed. note:  presumably this would be true both in class and at home; perhaps the respondent meant to suggest that the structure of being in school would counteract this better than the home environment.) 

Conclusion

The pandemic will provide a wealth of data to examine in years to come, answering questions like the one posed here. What became immediately clear in our short Puzzle survey is the powerful pull of Type III error. There is much hand-wring over general innumeracy in society. Our readers fall in the “numerate” class, yet two-thirds of them fell down the Type III error rabbit-hole. On the other hand, we mustn’t be too hard on ourselves. Statistical plots presented in the news media are often confusing or inaccurate and lead us astray. It might be natural to look at a plot like this not as a scientific problem, but merely as a prompt to share already-formed thoughts on the subject.  

Subscribe to the Blog

You have Successfully Subscribed!

By submitting your information, you agree to receive email communications from statistics.com. All information submitted is subject to our privacy policy. You may opt out of receiving communications at any time.

Categories

Recent Posts

  • March 9: Statistics and Data Science in Practice March 7, 2021
  • Feb 23: Statistics and Data Science in Practice March 5, 2021
  • Word of the Week – Ruin Theory March 4, 2021

About Statistics.com

Statistics.com offers academic and professional education in statistics, analytics, and data science at beginner, intermediate, and advanced levels of instruction. Statistics.com is a part of Elder Research, a data science consultancy with 25 years of experience in data analytics.

Latest Blogs

  • March 9: Statistics and Data Science in Practice
    March 7, 2021/
    0 Comments
  • Feb 23: Statistics and Data Science in Practice
    March 5, 2021/
    0 Comments
  • Word of the Week – Ruin Theory
    March 4, 2021/
    0 Comments

Social Networks

Linkedin
Twitter
Facebook
Youtube

Contact

The Institute for Statistics Education
4075 Wilson Blvd, 8th Floor
Arlington, VA 22203
(571) 281-8817

ourcourses@statistics.com

© Copyright 2021 - Statistics.com, LLC | All Rights Reserved | Privacy Policy | Terms of Use

By continuing to use this website, you consent to the use of cookies in accordance with our Cookie Policy.

Accept