Not So Useful Predictor p-values in linear models are a guide to the statistical significance of a predictor coefficient value – they measure the probability that a randomly shuffled model could have produced a coefficient as great as the fitted value. They are of limited utility in predictive modeling applications for various reasons: Software typicallyContinue reading “Predictor P-Values in Predictive Modeling”
Daily Archives: February 17, 2020
UpLift and Persuasion
The goal of any direct mail campaign, or other messaging effort, is to persuade somebody to do something. In the business world, it is usually to buy something. In the political world, it is usually to vote for someone (or, if you think you know who they will vote for, to encourage them to actuallyContinue reading “UpLift and Persuasion”
Feb 17: Statistics in Practice
Last week we looked at several metrics for assessing the performance of classification models – accuracy, receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves, and lift (gains). In this week’s Brief we move beyond lift and cover uplift. Our course spotlight again is: Feb 28 – Mar 27: Persuasion Analytics and Targeting See you in class! –Continue reading “Feb 17: Statistics in Practice”