Risk Simulation and Queuing
This course will teach you modeling technique making decisions in the presence of risk or uncertainty, including risk analysis using Monte Carlo simulation, queuing theory for problems involving waiting lines, and decision trees for analyzing problems with multiple discrete decision alternatives.
At the end of this course students will understand how to use spreadsheet-based software to construct and implement simulations to model uncertainty in decision inputs and risk intervals. They will model variability in arrivals over time using queuing theory. They will also learn how to use decision trees to incorporate information derived from these models to make optimal decisions.
- Use simulation to describe and measure the impact of uncertainty on decision problems.
- How to use optimization techniques with simulation to mitigate and manage risk.
- How queuing models are used to describe and manage the behavior of waiting lines.
- How to use payoff tables, decision trees and multi-criteria scoring models to analyze decisions problems.
Who Should Take This Course
Risk managers, financial analysts, project managers, operations managers, and others with responsibility for specifying, creating, deploying or interpreting risk analysis and queuing models. Users of risk analysis or queuing software who need to attain a more solid grounding in the subject.
- Interpreting output
- Implementing & optimizing the model
- Poisson distribution, arrival rate
- Service rate
- Operating characteristics
- Mastering complexity
- Payoff matrix
- Decision rules
- Expected monetary value
- Expected regret
- Expected value of information
- Decision trees
Multistage Decision Problems
- Risk profile
- Sensitivity analysis
- Tornado charts
- Using sample information
- Conditional probabilities
- Utility functions
Ability to use Microsoft Excel or similar spreadsheet program is necessary.
- Skill: Introductory
- Credit Options: ACE, CAP, CEU
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Homework in this course consists of short answer questions to test concepts and guided data analysis problems using software.
The course uses Analytic Solver Platform for Education software by Frontline systems. Analytic Solver Platform for Education is an add-in for Excel that performs risk analysis, simulation, optimization, decision trees and other analytical methods. With the purchase or rental of the book, you will have a course code that will enable you to download and install the software for 140 days. If you do not have such a license, a license is also available for course registrants through Statistics.com. Please do not install the regular public trial copy of the software on your own; when the course starts we will provide you with the complete installation instructions to obtain the appropriate copy of the software.
Literacy, Accessibility, and Dyslexia
At Statistics.com, we aim to provide a learning environment suitable for everyone. To help you get the most out of your learning experience, we have researched and tested several assistance tools. For students with dyslexia, colorblindness, or reading difficulties, we recommend the following web browser add-ons and extensions:
- Color Enhancer (for colorblindness)
- HelperBird (for colorblindness, dyslexia, and reading difficulties)
- Mobile Dyslexic
- Color Vision Simulation (native accessibility feature)
- Other native accessibility features instructions