Risk Simulation and Queuing
This course will teach you modeling technique making decisions in the presence of risk or uncertainty, including risk analysis using Monte Carlo simulation, queuing theory for problems involving waiting lines, and decision trees for analyzing problems with multiple discrete decision alternatives.
Overview
This online course covers three important modeling techniques. Students will learn how to (1) construct and implement simulations to model the uncertainty in decision input variables (e.g. price, demand, etc.) and supplement the overall estimate of interest by a risk interval of possible other outcomes using risk simulation; (2) model the variability in arrivals over time (customers, cars at a toll plaza, data packets, etc.) and ensuing queues, using queuing theory; (3) how to employ decision trees to incorporate information derived from models to actually make optimal decisions.
- Introductory
- 4 Weeks
- Expert Instructor
- Tuiton-Back Guarantee
- 100% Online
- TA Support
Learning Outcomes
At the end of this course students will understand how to use spreadsheet-based software to construct and implement simulations to model uncertainty in decision inputs and risk intervals. They will model variability in arrivals over time using queuing theory. They will also learn how to use decision trees to incorporate information derived from these models to make optimal decisions.
- Use simulation to describe and measure the impact of uncertainty on decision problems.
- How to use optimization techniques with simulation to mitigate and manage risk.
- How queuing models are used to describe and manage the behavior of waiting lines.
- How to use payoff tables, decision trees and multi-criteria scoring models to analyze decisions problems.
Who Should Take This Course
Risk managers, financial analysts, project managers, operations managers, and others with responsibility for specifying, creating, deploying or interpreting risk analysis and queuing models. Users of risk analysis or queuing software who need to attain a more solid grounding in the subject.
Our Instructors
Dr. Cliff Ragsdale
Course Syllabus
Week 1
Risk Analysis
- Simulation
- Interpreting output
- Implementing & optimizing the model
Week 2
Advanced Simulation
- Poisson distribution, arrival rate
- Service rate
- Operating characteristics
Week 3
Queuing
- Mastering complexity
- Payoff matrix
- Decision rules
- Expected monetary value
- Expected regret
- Expected value of information
- Decision trees
Week 4
Multistage Decision Problems
- Risk profile
- Sensitivity analysis
- Tornado charts
- Using sample information
- Conditional probabilities
- Utility functions
Class Dates
2023
Instructors:
Instructors:
2024
Instructors:
Instructors:
2025
Instructors:
Prerequisites
Ability to use Microsoft Excel or similar spreadsheet program is necessary.
Private: Statistics 1 – Probability and Study Design
- Skill: Introductory
- Credit Options: ACE, CAP, CEU
The Statistics.com courses have helped me a lot, pushing me to the limit and making me learn much more than I expected I could. The knowledge I gained I could immediately leverage in my job … then eventually led to landing a job in my dream company – Amazon.
Karolis Urbonas
This program has been a life and work game changer for me. Within 2 weeks of taking this class, I was able to produce far more than I ever had before.
Susan Kamp
The material covered in the Analytics for Data Science Certificate will be indispensable in my work. I can’t wait to take other courses. Great work!
Stephen McAllister
I learned more in the past 6 weeks than I did taking a full semester of statistics in college, and 10 weeks of statistics in graduate school. Seriously.
Amir Aminimanizani
This is the best online course I have ever taken. Very well prepared. Covers a lot of real-life problems. Good job, thank you very much!
Elena Rose
The more courses I take at Statistics.com, the more appreciation I have for the smart approach, quality of instructors, assistants, admin and program. Well done!
Leonardo Nagata
This course greatly benefited me because I am interested in working in AI. It has given me solid foundational knowledge…After completing this last course, I feel I have gained valuable skills that will enhance my employability in Data Science, opening up diverse career opportunities.
Richard Jackson
Frequently Asked Questions
-
What is your satisfaction guarantee and how does it work?
-
Can I transfer or withdraw from a course?
-
Who are the instructors at Statistics.com?
Visit our knowledge base and learn more.
Additional Information
Homework
Homework in this course consists of short answer questions to test concepts and guided data analysis problems using software.
Course Text
Spreadsheet Modeling & Decision Analysis, Eighth edition by Cliff Ragsdale. This text is also used in Optimization: Linear Programming and Integer & Nonlinear Programming and Network Flow.
Software
The course uses Analytic Solver Platform for Education software by Frontline systems. Analytic Solver Platform for Education is an add-in for Excel that performs risk analysis, simulation, optimization, decision trees and other analytical methods. With the purchase or rental of the book, you will have a course code that will enable you to download and install the software for 140 days. If you do not have such a license, a license is also available for course registrants through Statistics.com. Please do not install the regular public trial copy of the software on your own; when the course starts we will provide you with the complete installation instructions to obtain the appropriate copy of the software.
Supplemental Information
Literacy, Accessibility, and Dyslexia
At Statistics.com, we aim to provide a learning environment suitable for everyone. To help you get the most out of your learning experience, we have researched and tested several assistance tools. For students with dyslexia, colorblindness, or reading difficulties, we recommend the following web browser add-ons and extensions:
Chrome
- Color Enhancer (for colorblindness)
- HelperBird (for colorblindness, dyslexia, and reading difficulties)
Firefox
- Mobile Dyslexic
- Color Vision Simulation (native accessibility feature)
- Other native accessibility features instructions
Safari
- Navidys (for colorblindness, dyslexia, and reading difficulties)
- HelperBird for Safari (for colorblindness, dyslexia, and reading difficulties)