Risk Simulation and Queuing

Risk Simulation and Queuing

This course will teach you modeling technique making decisions in the presence of risk or uncertainty, including risk analysis using Monte Carlo simulation, queuing theory for problems involving waiting lines, and decision trees for analyzing problems with multiple discrete decision alternatives.

This course will teach you modeling technique making decisions in the presence of risk or uncertainty, including risk analysis using Monte Carlo simulation, queuing theory for problems involving waiting lines, and decision trees for analyzing problems with multiple discrete decision alternatives.

$699 | Enroll Now
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Risk, Simulation and Queuing

Overview

This online course covers three important modeling techniques. Students will learn how to (1) construct and implement simulations to model the uncertainty in decision input variables (e.g. price, demand, etc.) and supplement the overall estimate of interest by a risk interval of possible other outcomes using risk simulation; (2) model the variability in arrivals over time (customers, cars at a toll plaza, data packets, etc.) and ensuing queues, using queuing theory; (3) how to employ decision trees to incorporate information derived from models to actually make optimal decisions.

Introductory Level Course
100% Online Courses
4-Week Course
ACE + CAP Credit Eligible
Expert Instructors
Teacher Assistant Support
Tution-Back Guarantee

Learning Outcomes

At the end of this course students will understand how to use spreadsheet-based software to construct and implement simulations to model uncertainty in decision inputs and risk intervals. They will model variability in arrivals over time using queuing theory. They will also learn how to use decision trees to incorporate information derived from these models to make optimal decisions.

  • Use simulation to describe and measure the impact of uncertainty on decision problems.
  • How to use optimization techniques with simulation to mitigate and manage risk.
  • How queuing models are used to describe and manage the behavior of waiting lines.
  • How to use payoff tables, decision trees and multi-criteria scoring models to analyze decisions problems.

Who Should Take This Course

Risk managers, financial analysts, project managers, operations managers, and others with responsibility for specifying, creating, deploying or interpreting risk analysis and queuing models.  Users of risk analysis or queuing software who need to attain a more solid grounding in the subject.

Instructors

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Dr. Cliff Ragsdale

Dr. Cliff Ragsdale

Cliff T. Ragsdale is Bank of America Professor of Business Information Technology at Virginia Tech. His primary research interests involve applications of quantitative modeling techniques to managerial decision making problems using microcomputers. Dr. Ragsdale has served as a consultant for a variety of organizations including General Mills, The World Bank, Frontline Systems, and Dominion Energy. His research has been published in Decision Sciences, Naval Research Logistics, Operations Research Letters, Computers and Operations Research, OMEGA, Personal Financial Planning, Financial Services Review, Decision Support Systems, and a number of other scholarly journals. He is a Fellow of Dec...

See Instructor Bio

Course Syllabus

Week 1

Risk Analysis

  • Simulation
  • Interpreting output
  • Implementing & optimizing the model

Week 2

Advanced Simulation

  • Poisson distribution, arrival rate
  • Service rate
  • Operating characteristics

Week 3

Queuing

  • Mastering complexity
  • Payoff matrix
  • Decision rules
  • Expected monetary value
  • Expected regret
  • Expected value of information
  • Decision trees

Week 4

Multistage Decision Problems

  • Risk profile
  • Sensitivity analysis
  • Tornado charts
  • Using sample information
  • Conditional probabilities
  • Utility functions

Class Dates

2023

May 5, 2023 to Jun 2, 2023

Nov 10, 2023 to Dec 8, 2023

2024

May 10, 2024 to Jun 7, 2024

2025

No classes scheduled at this time.

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Prerequisites

There are no prerequisites for this course.

Ability to use Microsoft Excel or similar spreadsheet program is necessary.

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What Our Students Say​

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Left Square Qoute

Wonderful course. I'll never pass a queue again without thinking more about it :). Dr. Ragsdale's book is superb it’s really clear and whenever I had a question it was only a matter of reading more closely to find the answer

Micahel Murphy
Enterprise-Ireland
Right Square Qoute
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William Barbour

This course was flat-out excellent. Dr. Ragsdale sets the gold standard for teaching, from his clear and informative text to his prompt and helpful forum responses to his efficient and effective course design. I now have tools that I can put work immediately to benefit my company. Anuja, our teaching assistant, was also superb, providing timely help and support when needed.

William Barbour
Consultant at TEKsystems
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Frequently Asked Questions

Can I transfer or withdraw from a course?

We have a flexible transfer and withdrawal policy that recognizes circumstances may arise to prevent you from taking a course as planned. You may transfer or withdraw from a course under certain conditions.
  • Students are entitled to a full refund if a course they are registered for is canceled.
  • You can transfer your tuition to another course at any time prior to the course start date or the drop date, however a transfer is not permitted after the drop date.
  • Withdrawals on or after the first day of class are entitled to a percentage refund of tuition.
Please see this page for more information.

Who are the instructors at the Institute?

The Institute has more than 60 instructors who are recruited based on their expertise in various areas in statistics. Our faculty members are:

  • Authors of well-regarded texts in their area;
  • Advisory board members;
  • Senior faculty; and
  • Educators who have made important contributions to the field of statistics or online education in statistics.

The majority of our instructors have more than five years of teaching experience online at the Institute.

Please visit our faculty page for more information on each instructor at The Institute for Statistics Education.

Please see our knowledge center for more information.

What type of courses does the Institute offer?

The Institute offers approximately 80 courses each year. Topics include basic survey courses for novices, a full sequence of introductory statistics courses, bridge courses to more advanced topics. Our courses cover a range of topics including biostatistics, research statistics, data mining, business analytics, survey statistics, and environmental statistics.

Please see our course search or knowledge center for more information.

Do your courses have for-credit options?

Our courses have several for-credit options:

  • Continuing education units (CEU)
  • College credit through The American Council on Education (ACE CREDIT)
  • Course credits that are transferable to the INFORMS Certified Analytics Professional (CAP®)

Please see our knowledge center for more information.

Is the Institute for Statistics Education certified?

The Institute for Statistics Education is certified to operate by the State Council of Higher Education for Virginia (SCHEV). For more information visit: https://www.schev.edu/

Please see our knowledge center for more information.

Visit our knowledge base and learn more.

FAQs + Knowledge Base

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Additional Course Information

Organization of Course

This course takes place online at The Institute for 4 weeks. During each course week, you participate at times of your own choosing – there are no set times when you must be online. Course participants will be given access to a private discussion board. In class discussions led by the instructor, you can post questions, seek clarification, and interact with your fellow students and the instructor.

At the beginning of each week, you receive the relevant material, in addition to answers to exercises from the previous session. During the week, you are expected to go over the course materials, work through exercises, and submit answers. Discussion among participants is encouraged. The instructor will provide answers and comments, and at the end of the week, you will receive individual feedback on your homework answers.

Time Requirements

This is a 4-week course requiring 10-15 hours per week of review and study, at times of your choosing.

Homework

Homework in this course consists of short answer questions to test concepts and guided data analysis problems using software.

Course Text

Spreadsheet Modeling & Decision Analysis, Eighth edition by Cliff Ragsdale. This text is also used in Optimization: Linear Programming and Integer & Nonlinear Programming and Network Flow.

Please order a copy of your course textbook prior to course start date.

Software

The course uses Analytic Solver Platform for Education software by Frontline systems.  Analytic Solver Platform for Education is an add-in for Excel that performs risk analysis, simulation, optimization, decision trees and other analytical methods.  With the purchase or rental of the book, you will have a course code that will enable you to download and install the software for 140 days. If you do not have such a license, a license is also available for course registrants through Statistics.com.   Please do not install the regular public trial copy of the software on your own; when the course starts we will provide you with the complete installation instructions to obtain the appropriate copy of the software.

Software Uses and Descriptions | Available Free Versions
To learn more about the software used in this course, or how to obtain free versions of software used in our courses, please read our knowledge base article “What software is used in courses?” 

Course Fee & Information

Enrollment
Courses may fill up at any time and registrations are processed in the order in which they are received. Your registration will be confirmed for the first available course date unless you specify otherwise.

Transfers and Withdrawals
We have flexible policies to transfer to another course or withdraw if necessary.

Group Rates
Contact us to get information on group rates.

Discounts
Academic affiliation?  In most courses you are eligible for a discount at checkout.

New to Statistics.com?  Click here for a special introductory discount code.  

Invoice or Purchase Order
Add $50 service fee if you require a prior invoice, or if you need to submit a purchase order or voucher, pay by wire transfer or EFT, or refund and reprocess a prior payment.

Options for Credit and Recognition

This course is eligible for the following credit and recognition options:

No Credit
You may take this course without pursuing credit or a record of completion.

Mastery or Certificate Program Credit
If you are enrolled in mastery or certificate program that requires demonstration of proficiency in this subject, your course work may be assessed for a grade.

CEUs and Proof of Completion
If you require a “Record of Course Completion” along with professional development credit in the form of Continuing Education Units (CEU’s), upon successfully completing the course, CEU’s and a record of course completion will be issued by The Institute upon your request.

ACE CREDIT | College Credit
This course has been evaluated by the American Council on Education (ACE) and is recommended for college credit.  For recommendation details (level, and number of credits), please see this page. Please note that the decision to accept specific credit recommendations is up to the academic institution accepting the credit.

ACE Digital Badge
Courses evaluated by the American Council on Education (ACE) have a digital badge available for successful completion of the course.

INFORMS-CAP
This course is recognized by the Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS) as helpful preparation for the Certified Analytics Professional (CAP®) exam and can help CAP® analysts accrue Professional Development Units to maintain their certification.

Supplemental Information

Literacy, Accessibility, and Dyslexia

At Statistics.com, we aim to provide a learning environment suitable for everyone. To help you get the most out of your learning experience, we have researched and tested several assistance tools. For students with dyslexia, colorblindness, or reading difficulties, we recommend the following web browser add-ons and extensions:

 

Chrome

 

Firefox

 

Safari

  • Navidys (for colorblindness, dyslexia, and reading difficulties)
  • HelperBird for Safari (for colorblindness, dyslexia, and reading difficulties)

Miscellaneous

There is no additional information for this course.

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Risk Simulation and Queuing
$699 | Enroll Now
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