#### Feb 24: Statistics in Practice

In this week’s Brief, we look at social categories, and the role that statistics and data science have played in social engineering - 100 years ago and today.  Our course spotlight is April 3 - May 1:  Categorical Data Analysis See you in class! -…

Comments Off on Feb 24: Statistics in Practice

#### The Normal Share of Paupers

In 2009, China began regional pilot programs that repurposed credit scores to a broader purpose - scoring a person’s “social credit.”  100 years earlier, at the height of the eugenics craze, the famous statistician Francis Galton undertook to repurpose statistical concepts in service of social…

Comments Off on The Normal Share of Paupers

#### Purity

In classification, purity measures the extent to which a group of records share the same class.  It is also termed class purity or homogeneity, and sometimes impurity is measured instead.  The measure Gini impurity, for example, is calculated for a two-class case as p(1-p), where…

#### Predictor P-Values in Predictive Modeling

Not So Useful Predictor p-values in linear models are a guide to the statistical significance of a predictor coefficient value - they measure the probability that a randomly shuffled model could have produced a coefficient as great as the fitted value.  They are of limited…

Comments Off on Predictor P-Values in Predictive Modeling

#### UpLift and Persuasion

The goal of any direct mail campaign, or other messaging effort, is to persuade somebody to do something.  In the business world, it is usually to buy something. In the political world, it is usually to vote for someone (or, if you think you know…

Comments Off on UpLift and Persuasion

#### Feb 17: Statistics in Practice

Last week we looked at several metrics for assessing the performance of classification models - accuracy, receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves, and lift (gains).  In this week’s Brief we move beyond lift and cover uplift. Our course spotlight again is: Feb 28 - Mar 27:…

Comments Off on Feb 17: Statistics in Practice

#### ROC, Lift and Gains Curves

There are various metrics for assessing the performance of a classification model.  It matters which one you use. The simplest is accuracy - the proportion of cases correctly classified.  In classification tasks where the outcome of interest (“1”) is rare, though, accuracy as a metric…

Comments Off on ROC, Lift and Gains Curves

#### Feb 10: Statistics in Practice

Tomorrow is the New Hampshire political primary in the US, and this week’s Brief looks at the statistical concept of lift.  Our spotlight is on: Feb 28 - Mar 27:   Persuasion Analytics and Targeting See you in class! - Peter Bruce, Founder Lift and…

Comments Off on Feb 10: Statistics in Practice

#### Lift and Persuasion

Predicting the probability that something or someone will belong to a certain category (classification problems) is perhaps the oldest type of problem in analytics.  Consider the category “repays loan.” Equifax, the oldest of the agencies that provides credit scores, was founded in 1899 as the…

Comments Off on Lift and Persuasion

#### Going Beyond the Canary Trap

In 2008, Elon Musk was concerned about leaks of sensitive information at Tesla Motors.  To catch the leaker, he prepared multiple unique versions of a new nondisclosure agreement he asked senior officers to sign.  Whichever version got leaked would reveal the leak source. This is…

Comments Off on Going Beyond the Canary Trap

#### Statistics.com Acquired by Elder Research

In last week’s Brief I described how The Institute’s courses, and its Mastery, Certificate and Degree programs would continue without interruption, following our acquisition by Elder Research, Inc.  Now I’d like to talk about how the Institute’s students stand to gain from the expertise and…

Comments Off on Statistics.com Acquired by Elder Research

#### Feb 3: Statistics in Practice

In this week’s blog, we discuss our recent acquisition by Elder Research Inc. We also look at the “Canary Trap” and its connection to text mining. Our course spotlight is on Jan 31 to Feb 28: Text Mining using Python (still open for registrations, first…

Comments Off on Feb 3: Statistics in Practice