Aug 25: Statistics in Practice

Vaccines for Covid are in the news, and this week we focus on the clinical trial process that validates vaccines as safe and effective.  Our spotlight is on our 10-course Biostatistics Certificate Program. You can get started with Jan 3-31:  Biostatistics 1 For Medical Science…

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Of Note: An outlier that lies in the middle of the data

An outlier or anomaly is typically defined as a case that is markedly distant or different from the bulk of the data.  Our July 28 blog on outliers and anomaly detection reported on one unusual case in which the outlier might lie fully within the…

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Clinical Trial Process that Validates Vaccines as Safe and Effective

As of this writing, there are about 40 Coronavirus vaccines in the clinical trial process, plus another 135 in preclinical development. Russia has jumped the gun and “approved” a vaccine that has just begun Phase 3 trials, and, likewise, China has approved a pre-Phase 3…

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Aug 19: Statistics in Practice

Last week we looked at a notable failure of the statistic “AUC”; this week we dive deeper.  Our curriculum spotlight is our 10-course Analytics for Data Science certificate program: compare cost and coverage to ANY Master’s program!   You can get started with  Sep 11 – Oct…

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AUC: A Fatally Flawed Model Metric

By John Elder, Founder and Chair of Elder Research, Inc.  Last week, in Recidivism, and the Failure of AUC, we saw how the use of “Area Under the Curve” (AUC) concealed bias against African-Americans defendants in a model predicting recidivism, that is, which defendants would re-offend. …

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Recidivism, and the Failure of AUC

On average, 40% - 50% of convicted criminals in the U.S. go on to commit another crime (“recidivate”) after they are released.  For nearly 20 years, court systems have used statistical and machine learning algorithms to predict the probability of recidivism, and to guide sentencing…

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Endpoint or Outcome (example: Covid-19 vaccine)

In a randomized experiment, the endpoint or outcome is a formal measure (statistic) of the result of the experiment.  In a randomized clinical trial preparatory to regulatory submission, there is often more than one outcome, due to the time and expense involved in conducting a…

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Aug 4: Statistics in Practice

In this week’s brief, we feature a data-detective story: The Case of the Faulty Generator.  Our spotlight is on our Analytics for Data Science certificate program*. See you in class! *Earn a Bachelor’s Degree in Data Science and Analytics concurrently at Thomas Edison State University.…

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Link Function

In generalized linear models, a link function maps a nonlinear relationship to a linear one so that a linear model can be fit (and then mapped to the original form).  For example, in logistic regression, we want to find the probability of success:  P(Y =…

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Sira-Kvina Hydro Power –The Case of the Faulty Generator

Prepared by Peter Bruce, Mark Smith and Ramon Perez, this case study was originally published at elderresearch.com.   In early 2020, Sira-Kvina Kraftselskap, a large producer of hydroelectric power in Norway, suffered a breakdownof one of its major generators. Company technicians went through established diagnostics…

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