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Covid-19 Parameters

There are many moving parts in modeling the spread of an epidemic, a subject that has lately attracted the attention of great numbers of statistically-oriented non-epidemiologists (like me).  I’ve put together a “lay statistician’s guide” to some of the important parameters and factors (and I welcome corrections/additions!). Terms Case fatality rate or CFR:  Deaths asContinue reading “Covid-19 Parameters”

Coronavirus – in Search of the Elusive Denominator

Anyone with internet access these days has their eyes on two constellations of data – the spread of the coronavirus, and the resulting collapse of the financial markets.  Following the 13% one-day drop of the stock market a week ago, The Wall Street Journal forecast a quarterly GDP drop of as much as 10% –Continue reading “Coronavirus – in Search of the Elusive Denominator”

Coronavirus: To Test or Not to Test

In recent years, under the influence of statisticians, the medical profession has dialed back on screening tests.  With relatively rare conditions, widespread testing yields many false positives and doctor visits, whose collective cost can outweigh benefits.  Coronavirus advice follows this line – testing is limited to the truly ill (this is also due to aContinue reading “Coronavirus: To Test or Not to Test”